The El Niño Pulse

Understanding a Natural Climate Phenomenon in Plain English

The El Niño Pulse is Beating Fast

The 2026 El Niño is on course to be one of the strongest ever measured, and it has filled feeds with alarming, and often contradictory, headlines. One warns the Pacific has hit an outrageous +2.89°C. Another says the all-time record is days from falling. A third quietly strips half of that warmth away and calls the event far more modest.

They can all be true at once. The number you are shown depends entirely on which index it uses and which forecast centre it came from, and the loudest headline is rarely the most complete one. Read a single source and it is easy to be frightened, or reassured, for the wrong reasons.

Wouldn't it be great to see every major forecast centre in one place, read the real composite picture, and tell the genuine signal from the spin? Well, now you can, with the El Niño Pulse.

The El Niño Pulse · 169to1

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The El Niño Pulse

A composite read on the 2026 El Niño, pulled from the world's main forecast centres and model ensembles rather than one go-to source. It shows the traditional index and NOAA's official RONI index side by side, so you can see how strong the event really is once background ocean warming is stripped out.

Observed values checked 14 September 2026. Forecast rows carry each centre's latest published outlook and the date it was issued.

10Forecast Centres

26Models in the Plume

5Context Indices

2Index Scales

Now A very strong, likely-record El Niño is intensifying. The traditional Niño 3.4 anomaly is about +2.89°C against the 1991–2020 baseline, but that figure carries decades of background warming. On RONI, NOAA's official index since February 2026, the same event reads about +1.4°C over the summer. Both are real; they answer different questions.

The climb, and where the models say it is going

Observed Niño 3.4 from spring 2026, with each centre's forecast peak plotted for winter. Solid lines are observations, dashed lines are forecasts. The bold composite mean is the average of the independent model forecasts (WMO, ECMWF, IRI), so it stays put whichever individual lines you show. Copernicus C3S shares models with the WMO ensemble, so it is left out of the mean to avoid double counting.

Show lines

The reading right now

Observed Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature, the same water measured two ways.

Traditional +2.89°C Against the fixed 1991–2020 average. Daily preliminary, 7 Sep 2026. Weekly value about +2.7°C.

RONI · official +1.4°C Background tropical warming removed, so this is closer to the pure El Niño signal. June to August average, 2026.

The all-time daily record on the traditional index is +3.03°C (19 November 2015), so the headline figure is genuinely near a record. On RONI the record holder is instead 1982–83. Which record this event is "closing in on" depends entirely on which yardstick you use.

Where the forecasters stand

Intensity call across the ten centres and three ensembles.

The colour of the reading on the right shows the intensity call

Historic / Near-record. Expected to rival or beat the strongest events on record.

Very Strong. Above the +2.0°C "super" threshold on the traditional index.

Strong. A clear El Niño, below the super threshold.

Forecast centres and models

Operational forecast centres

Multi-model ensemble means

This tool exists because no single number and no single centre tells the whole story. Here is how to read what it shows without being misled, and how to use it as a teaching case.

Always ask what the number is measured against

The same event reads as +2.89°C or +1.4°C depending only on the index. NOAA moved to RONI as its official measure in February 2026 for exactly this reason. A figure with no reference point attached is not yet information.

One centre is an opinion; the spread is the signal

Any single forecast carries model bias and the odd bad run. The value of a composite is not a tidier number but an honest picture of agreement. Toggle the model lines on the chart and you can see how closely the centres sit, and that agreement is itself the headline.

Watch the atmosphere and the background, not just the ocean

A warm Niño 3.4 patch is only half of El Niño. The SOI tells you whether the atmosphere has coupled to it. The PDO is currently negative, an unusual pairing with a strong El Niño, and it can reshape where the effects actually land.

Respect the spring barrier and the skill horizon

Forecasts made across the northern spring are far less reliable than those made later in the year. That barrier is now behind us, which is why confidence jumped over the summer, but skill still falls at long lead times. Treat spring 2027 as a scenario, not a prediction.

Records depend on the yardstick

"Highest ever recorded" is only meaningful once you name the index. On the traditional measure the target is 2015–16; on RONI it is 1982–83. Both can be true sentences about the same event.

Use it in the room

Give learners the headline figure alone and ask what they would need to know before trusting it. Then reveal the two index lines on the chart.
Turn the model lines on one at a time and ask why they diverge: model type, lead time, or index.
Ask what the negative PDO does to the story, and what it would mean if the atmosphere (SOI) failed to couple.
Debate: is +2.89°C honest, misleading, or both, and what one sentence would you add to make it fair?

This is about reading the data and recognising your impact.

If you’re working inside the 169to1® eco-system, transparency and relevance is key to sustainable action.

Select, Classify and Prove… Simple.

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